Eugene's natural disaster plans: preventative, permaculture perspectives

• Eugene's Multi-Hazard Mitigation program
• floods: don’t build hospitals in floodplains
• storms: plant fruit trees, not firs, around homes
• landslides: ban clearcuts and new road cuts
• wildfires: fireworks and clearcuts increase risk
• earthquakes and coastal tsunami: seismic retrofit bridges & buildings
• volcanoes: plan to do without Calif. products if Mt. Shasta erupts
• dam collapse:
  the Willamette Valley tsunami, we must strengthen -- or remove -- the dams
• critical infrastructure: redundancy, relocalization and renewables needed
• hazardous material: ban toxics, monitor train & truck shipments through region
• terrorism: community cohesion is solution

• Disaster Mitigation and Land Use:
  Eugene needs intelligent (urban) design
  Hospitals, Earthquakes, Floods, and Lahars
  Troubled Bridges Over Water: the I-5 bridge crisis
  West Eugene sprawl in floodplains: WEP, Target megastore, Royal Node subdivision
• The Long Emergency: Peak Oil and Climate Collapse require paradigm shift
• Katrina disaster shows the Federal government response: we are on our own

2 page version (pdf)

WEP haiku

Osprey Group report ignored
WETLANDS alternative &
2001 "No Build" consensus
City, County, State, Fed governments

June 2006: last gasp?
Federal Highway - new route

blog
articles
dictionary
maps
hidden history

flaws:
laws
lies
traffic
cost

West Eugene Wetlands

WEP alternatives:
$17, $88, or $169 million

WEP would have more
traffic lights than
WETLANDS alternative

hospital siting
downtown boondoggles
disaster preparedness
Region 2050

Eugene NOT #1 Green City

TREES:
Transportation
Energy
Environment
Sustainability

The Multi-Hazard study suggests that the main danger from a potential volcanic eruption for Eugene would be a mud flow down the McKenzie River valley from the South Sister. Eugene and Springfield are too far away from any volcano to risk the heat of an eruption, although McKenzie Bridge and Sisters might need to be evacuated if South Sister woke up from its thousand year sleep. A wintertime eruption would probably cause severe flooding from the sudden melting of the snowpack, and a summertime eruption could cause forest fires on the scale of the 2002 “Biscuit” fire.

During the 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption, a large lahar - an Indonesia word for volcanic mudflow - cascaded down the Toutle River, destroying structures and causing a large proportion of the total damage. While there’s probably not much that could be done to protect the communities of the McKenzie River valley from mud floods (other than evacuation), the Eugene / Springfield metro area needs to do 2 things.

First, it is important to ensure that there are viable contingency plans for relocating drinking water intakes from the McKenzie to the Middle Fork reservoirs (should that ever be required). Second, plans to build a large regional hospital at the “Riverbend” on the McKenzie River should be permanently blocked, since a South Sister lahar could cover the proposed Peace Health site. Unfortunately, the City of Springfield allowed this planning disaster to go forward, and the hospital is now under construction.

One benefit of the South Sister lahar is it might result in filling up the humongous gravel pits along the Willamette / McKenzie confluence, accelerating the process of river restoration.

Three Sisters volcanos

www.registerguard.com/news/2003/10/26/ol.volcano.1026.html
On the rise: A fourth Sister in the making? Forces shifting landscape raise questions about future of Central Cascades, By Karen McCowan, The Register-Guard, October 26, 2003

“... His worst case scenario is an eruption generating 500 million cubic meters of lahar - flows of volcanic rock and mud triggered by pyroclastic flows of hot volcanic debris melting snow and glacier ice.
“In that case, mud flows in the the McKenzie River Valley could reach as far west as Thurston.”

 

Lane County could be economically impacted by eruptions from other major Cascade volcanos, several of which could disrupt or destroy key road and rail connections.

Mt. Hood, the tallest volcano in Oregon, could threaten I-84 with mudflows and / or hot ashes (depending on the severity of the eruption), and would probably destroy the main drinking water source for Portland (that would have economic reverberations for the whole State of Oregon).

Mt. Rainier (Tahoma) poses the largest lahar risks for any Cascadian volcano, which has made extremely large mud flows in previous millennia. A number of cities downstream of the mountain would be engulfed by the lahars should a large eruption melt Rainier’s glaciers, which could sever I-5 and the main north-south rail lines for an extended period.

Mount Rainier has 26 glaciers containing more than five times as much snow and ice as all the other Cascade volcanoes combined. If only a small part of this ice were melted by volcanic activity, it would yield enough water to trigger enormous lahars. Mount Rainier's potential for generating destructive mudflows is enhanced by its great height above surrounding valleys. .... Scientists estimate that debris flows can travel the distance between Mount Rainier and the Puget Sound lowland in as little as 30 minutes to a few hours. About 100,000 people now live in areas that have been buried by debris flows during the past few thousand years.
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/LivingWith/VolcanicFacts/misc_volcanic_facts.html

Mt. Shasta’s eruptive history includes explosive events -- a repeat would destroy I-5 along the Sacramento River canyon and the rail line. (The town of Mt. Shasta is built on pyroclastic deposits, a geological term for the hot ash from explosive eruptions.) Fortunately, any of these events would be preceded by a lengthy series of earthquakes that would enable evacuations and other preparations.

http://www.siskiyous.edu/shasta/geo/haz.htm

About 9,500 years ago pyroclastic flows swept down from Shastina and its satellite, Black Butte, burning and burying the forests that stood where Weed and Mount Shasta City are today. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal from these forests dates the eruptions at about 9,500 years ago (Miller, 1978). The flow deposits have red (oxidized) tops and contain prismatically-jointed blocks, both of which indicate that they were emplaced at high temperatures (Figure 29). Similar pyroclastic flows from the Hotlum cone have travelled 10 to 20 kilometers down valleys on all sides of the mountain during the past several thousand years, and Miller (1980) estimates that the collapse of a dome high on Mount Shasta during a future eruption could create pyroclastic flows that would overrun low-lying areas up to 30 kilometers from the volcano (Figure 30).

Spencer Butte, which looks volcanic, is probably the result of erosion that removed softer rocks over millions of years. The only danger it poses to the community is from people setting off fireworks during the summertime, causing a preventable forest fire. This mountain, and similar basalt buttes in the Willamette Valley floor (such as Skinner Butte and Gillespie Butte) are between 30 and 35 million years old,
(Elizabeth Orr, et al, “Geology of Oregon,” fourth edition, Kensdall / Hunt Publishing Co., 1992, p. 220)

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Glossary/Lahars/framework.html - definition of lahars
http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Publications/MSHPPF/MSH_past_present_future.html
good description of 1980 Mt. St. Helens eruption, including lahars all the way to Columbia River